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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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