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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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