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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
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Showing 2616 to 2620 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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