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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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