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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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