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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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Showing 2411 to 2415 news of total 6871 |
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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