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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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