We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freig ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
|
|
|
Showing 2386 to 2390 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
|
| |
| |
|
