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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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