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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL PRICES TO INCREASE IN 2017 AND IN 2018 - EIA
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 158 million short tons (MMst) (18%) in 2016, to 739 MMst, which would be the lowe ...
Friday, 13 January 17
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN THIRD QUARTER 2016 TOTALED 2.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 12 January 17
ASIA: COAL'S FUTURE - BENJAMIN SPORTON
As economies develop and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are realised, demand for energy will increase as more peopl ...
Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a ...
Tuesday, 10 January 17
SHIPPING MARKET 2017
After having entered into a New Year, fresh hopes seem to be high for this to be the turning point in the market that many have been looking forwar ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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