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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 September 17
U.S COAL OUTPUT DIPS WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 31 August 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS AT AROUND $9000, DELIVERY THAILAND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit slow start to the week with UK holidays on Monday. Still strong rates for cargoes out of Black Sea, where front hauls where done $ ...
Tuesday, 29 August 17
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, one of the worst disasters to hit Texas, we are now looking to get a clearer picture of the possible disrupti ...
Tuesday, 29 August 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUT UP 3.4% WEEK OVER WEEK TO APPROX. 17 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tonne ...
Thursday, 24 August 17
SUPRAMAX: LOW $10K FOR INDO COAL TRIPS TO INDIA; AROUND $10K FOR INDO TO CHINA TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week Supras from the Black Sea on fhaul have seen numerous orders and improving rates.
53-57k dwt vessels have been fixed at e ...
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Showing 1956 to 1960 news of total 6871 |
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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