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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 11 September 17
A PUNCHY WEEK FOR THE BIG SHIPS AS THE RATE FOR WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA HIT $8.00 THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY THREE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships as the rate for West Australia/China hit $8.00 the first time in nearly three years. A Jiangsu Steamship ...
Monday, 11 September 17
INDONESIAN ICPR SURGES HIGHER, POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY RISE SINCE DECEMBER 2016, ESDM DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 9.60% in September, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 11 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 6.235 MMT OF 5700 AND 5100 NAR COAL FOR 2017 TO 2022 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 1,590,000 Metric Tons of Bitumino ...
Monday, 11 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK; BCI UP 22.22% & BPI UP 14.77%
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments week over week. Mainly Cape and Panamax have supported to pushed up BDI this past week, BDI, ...
Friday, 08 September 17
MIXED SIGNALS ON REFINERY PREPARATIONS FOR 2020 FUEL CHANGES - IBIA
A recent consultancy survey has suggested that some 85% of refiners have not made plans for how to deal with the expected dramatic fall in g ...
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Showing 1946 to 1950 news of total 6871 |
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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