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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 21 August 17
FIRM DEMAND FOR CAPES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY BULK SHIPPING
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to rose this past week compared to the previous weeks, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a posit ...
Friday, 18 August 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 2.1% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 17 August 17
DESPITE A HOLIDAY-DISRUPTED WEEK IT HAS BEEN A NEW ACTIVE WEEK FOR THE PANAMAXES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A very quiet start to the week with holidays in several countries. USG still bringing good results supported by a tight tonnage availabl ...
Monday, 14 August 17
CENTURIES ON, AND DRY BULK STILL RULES THE WAVES... - SARAH HOLDEN | CLARKSONS
By the late 1800s, the shipping industry had been transformed by the introduction of steam power and iron ships. Coal and grain were two of the mos ...
Monday, 14 August 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUES ON AN UPWARD PATH
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positi ...
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Showing 1966 to 1970 news of total 6871 |
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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