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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 November 17
DRY BULK SHIPPING: TAKE GOOD CARE OF THE RECOVERY SAYS PETER SAND
Demand:
Even without much support from Brazilian iron ore exports during August, capesize rates went from $10,000 to $17,000 per day. In Septembe ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE RELATIVELY BUOYANT - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were relatively buoyant. Metallurgical coal prices were supported by the stronger steel and iron ore prices, says Daniel Hynes, Senior ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
PROSPERITY AND WINTER WARMTH REMAIN PARAMOUNT IN CHINA - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese officials announced recently that 580 gigawatts of coal-derived electricity generation capacity has completed ultra-low emissions reform as ...
Monday, 06 November 17
COAL SHORTAGE HURTS INDIA'S HINDALCO AND VEDANTA SAYS BUSINESS STANDARD
Aluminium smelter operations of Vedanta and Hindalco are at risk of turning unviable due to a coal crunch.
According to Business Standard an I ...
Monday, 06 November 17
MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE EXPECTS BUNKER PRICES WILL CONTINUE UPWARD TREND NEXT WEEK
World fuel indexes rose during the week, supported by main oil producers’ statements about possible extension of oil production cut agreement ...
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Showing 1891 to 1895 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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