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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 06 November 17
THE THERMAL COAL MARKET CAME UNDER SOME PRESSURE AS THE OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND WEAKENED - DANIEL HYNES
Commodities were mixed as investors grappled with a revised tax plan in the US amid a rising USD said Daniel Hynes in his linked in post.
Acco ...
Monday, 06 November 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUED TO SOFTEN THIS PAST WEEK; BCI DOWN 184 POINT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to soften this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and all segments except Panamax index ...
Friday, 03 November 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL WEEK-OVER-WEEK, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.5 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 01 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
As it was expected, the strong dry bulk freight market of the past couple of months has inspired similar activity in the second-hand market. Noneth ...
Tuesday, 31 October 17
BALTIC DRY INDEX TAKES A BREAK FROM ITS UPWARD RALLY COURSE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a week of corrections for the dry bulk freight market as it seems as the general Baltic Dry Index takes a break from its upward rally c ...
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Showing 1896 to 1900 news of total 6871 |
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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