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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 14 November 17
COAL STOCKS RUN SHORT, CENTRE TO GET DAILY UPDATE ON STOCKS - DECCAN CHRONICLE
Facing a shortage of coal for thermal power generation in the country, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has issued guidelines for maintainin ...
Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the hi ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES WERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were broadly higher, driven by strong gains in the metallurgical coal market said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in h ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THIESS AWARDED $300M SANGATTA EXPANSION CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a $300 million contract by Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) to expand operations at Sangatta coal mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia ...
Friday, 10 November 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF 2017 IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 656 MMST; UP10% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ...
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Showing 1881 to 1885 news of total 6871 |
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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