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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 30 May 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
Among several hot topics that will be discussed during the Posidonia week, the International Maritime Organization regulation that will be enforced ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
BLOCKCHAIN CAN HAVE A TRANSFORMATIVE EFFECT ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Following the launch of a legal briefing on blockchain contracts from UK P&I Club, Claims Executive, Filip Koscieleck ...
Tuesday, 29 May 18
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT DECLINES IN APRIL AMID DIVERSION TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - PTI
India’s coal import fell by 9 percent to 17.32 million tonnes (MT) in April on the back of ample supply of dry fuel from domestic sources.
...
Monday, 28 May 18
COAL SUPPLY DIVERSION IRKS INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON CAPTIVE POWER PLANTS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The government’s move to prioritise coal supplies to power plants with minimal coal stock has disrupted fuel supply to some sectors, which ha ...
Monday, 28 May 18
KOMIPO ISSUED ANOTHER TENDER FOR 130K MT OF 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130,000 mt of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origi ...
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Showing 1711 to 1715 news of total 6871 |
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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