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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 28 July 18
GOVERNMENT TO REVOKE COAL PRICE CAP POLICY - JP
The government plans to revise its domestic market obligation (DMO) on coal price next week during a high-level meeting with President Joko “ ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
A SUPRAMAX IS NOW PAID AROUND USD 21,500 FOR LOADING IN THE US GULF WITH DISCHARGE IN THE FAR EAST - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There has been a relatively strong summer period so far, and there is a strong week we have left behind us.
In the Pa ...
Thursday, 26 July 18
ASEAN COAL IMPORTS INCREASED IN 2Q' 18 COMPARED TO THE PRIOR YEAR; THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS 56 GIGAWATTS OF NEW COAL PLANTS IN 24 COUNTRIES WORLDWIDE ARE EXPECTED TO COME ONLINE IN 2018 - PEABODY
Peabody announced its second quarter 2018 operating results, including revenues of $1.31 billion, income from continuing operations, net of income ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM'S PROFIT GROWS 50% IN FIRST HALF - JP
Coal miner Bukit Asam announced 50 percent profit growth to Rp 2.58 trillion (US$177.33 million) in the first half of 2018, on the back of a coal-p ...
Wednesday, 25 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
We are now into the second half of 2018, which so far has not been a fruitful year for tankers. With 2020 quickly approaching we need to consider t ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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