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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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