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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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