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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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