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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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