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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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