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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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Showing 951 to 955 news of total 6871 |
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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