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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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