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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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