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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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