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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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