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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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