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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
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Showing 811 to 815 news of total 6871 |
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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