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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
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Showing 806 to 810 news of total 6871 |
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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