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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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Showing 786 to 790 news of total 6871 |
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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