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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
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Showing 776 to 780 news of total 6871 |
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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