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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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