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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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Showing 61 to 65 news of total 6871 |
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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