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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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