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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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