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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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