We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
|
|
|
Showing 931 to 935 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
|
| |
| |
|
