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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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Showing 921 to 925 news of total 6871 |
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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