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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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