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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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