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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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