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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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