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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
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Showing 1016 to 1020 news of total 6871 |
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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