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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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