We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
|
|
|
Showing 961 to 965 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
