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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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