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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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