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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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