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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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