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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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